The watch does two things: tells time and tells time elapsed.1 Beyond that, it plays wonderfully as an artifact—of the era of manned space exploration, of mid-century design, and of the modern wristwatch. As a Swiss creation, it is mid-century and mid-continent, yet somehow transatlantic and American, an otherwise unassuming thing, amazingly natural in the company of a Vitra chair, an Eichler home, or the Space Center of Houston, Texas. (That city being the home to the jeweler that sold the first Speedmaster considered as flight equipment by NASA.)
The Speedmaster was first released in 1957, ten months after the Eames Lounge Chair was first exhibited. The two have remarkable qualities in common (not the least of which being price). They are each a marriage of potent design and modern materials. They're also deftly ergonomic in unexpected ways. They both make a first impression as expressions of artful and accidental invention. Extended use however, brings to light exacting design decisions in the service of ergonomics, not egomania.
Impressions
When brought to the ear, the watch ceaselessly chatters. As a manual/mechanical, a daily twenty twists of the crown unspool at six ticks a second thorough the day and night. It has a tall, convex miniscus of Hesalite crystal, a shatter-proof plastic. The crystal sits high above the face of the watch and at angles the refraction tugs at the hour, minute, and fifth-of-a-second hash marks. At the edges, the effect is one you might expect in a time travel sequence in 1960’s cinema.
The face of the Speedmaster is clear and communicative even at a glance, but it rewards a closer reading. At first the face appears as white lettering and hands on a black field. After close examination under many conditions the consensus is more a creamy off-white, and the black actually a field of matte off-black with elements of brown, which is most visible in intense direct sunlight. In that light, the field takes on an almost-sandy texture as the sunlight is reflected in a tiny glint of color. The hands and the hour marks are made even more complex due to phosphorescent paint (called Super-luminova by Omega). In daylight, the paint gives the white elements faded lime color. In darkness the face is an otherworldly landing zone lit with green. Of course the glow fades in time, but the sharp, contrasty elements make it easy to read time in dark surroundings.
Certainly a coincidence, but the watch pulls all of its colors from a distinctly lunar palette.
The attention to detail, surely not unique to Omega, or fine watches overall, is impressive. A tiny inverted omega letter is etched into the interior of the crystal, above the center shaft. The watch makes six discreet typefaces all work in harmony, no easy feat. The hour marks point boldly toward the center. Perhaps as a punch-line, the 12 o’clock hour mark sits between two curious circles, perhaps reminding the wearer that the piece is safely masculine.
The Smaller Dials
Arrayed around the center of the face, the three smaller dials form a pleasing symmetry with the manufacturer name and logo—elements which are themselves clustered in a sort of triangle, the angles of that triangle, starting from the center of the greek letter, point directly at the center of the seconds dial to the left, and the chronograph-minutes dial to the right.2 The dials are gently carved out of the matte, as if the white dials have over time pushed hourglass sands to the edge of their compass description.
To a watch neophyte, the most unexpected element of operation was that seconds were counted not by the longest, thinnest hand of the main dial, but down in one of the smaller dials. There, the second hand ticks, resting nearly imperceptibly at the sixths-of-a-second.
The structure and function of the chronograph is a study in elegant ratios. The minute dial (on the left) counts to 30 minutes, not 60, improving legibility . And its dial snaps to the minute, moving smartly from one hash to the next only in the two seconds preceding the top of the minute. The hour dial (center bottom) counts 12 hours, with its hand moving imperceptibly at the top of each minute. Of course the lanky center seconds hand ties the others together to measure time. The longest in the watch, it sits at the top of the pivot, pointing at noon when not in use and smartly splitting the omega. It is the only hand with a tail.
As the chronograph runs, it plays an elegant fugue of the presentation of time: the minute hand is always fixed on a specific number, the hour hand indicates a general position within the hour, indicating if the minutes hand is above or below 30 minutes. The center second hand sweeps boldly across the face. The dials can be read individually, each rendering discrete information, or read together as a propositional phrase—the angle of the dials quickly translating to form nouns and adjectives: quarter-past-the-hour, 11 minutes and fifty seconds, 34 seconds and four sixths exactly.
Until I had made use of the chronograph several times, and under different conditions, the care and attention paid to making it easy to tell elapsed time at a glance was not evident. It’s clear that the same thought that would go into the instrumentation for an aircraft cockpit—a towering example of man-machine connectivity—went into this aviation watch.
Beyond the Face
The watch is heavy. The bezel is thin, displaying a tachymeter gradient. Unlike a diving bezel so prevalent on many sports watches, this ring is subtle: the deep black gloss and silver type work well to bind the moving visuals at the center of the watch—hands, dials, hashes—into a solid whole. The watch has a refreshing lack of the colorful and heavy type of a diving watch.
The back of the watch remains philosophically consistent with the front. It reveals nothing about its mechanics. There is no window, only a deep relief seal depicting the Hippocamp, which often appears on Speedmasters and its diving sibling the Omega Seamaster.3 Surrounding the seal is a statement that it was the first watch worn on the moon.
Dedicated horophiles will cite the above credentials as a story that few other watches can match. Along with a bunch of other fine chronographs of the time, the Speedmaster was purchased by two NASA engineers for testing as a flight watch for use in space. Following a battery of tests of heat, pressure, vibration, and abuse, it beat out all of the others for reliability, safety, and durability for use in microgravity and the vacuum of space.
The watch is one of just a handful ever to be in space, the first to accompany a US astronaut on EVA, and the first on the moon. It’s successors are still preferred equipment on many US, Russian, and European space flights.
Conclusion
This review is laden with qualifiers like nearly, almost, and subtle. It's a testament to the concept and manufacture of this watch that simple statements of observation require such contorted language. The design and function works at such wonderfully detailed level that those qualifiers are needed. On the arm and in the eye, it’s a beautiful artifact of confidence in technology, an era of no limits. An era it seems time has left behind.
More
As a price control, Omega watches are embargoed from official sale over the internet.
Resources that cover more about the trivia, movements (cal. 1861 and 321), and evolution of the Speedmaster and its Omega brethren:
- Wikipedia entry (good)
- The Right Stuff: Inside the Omega Speedmaster Professional (a massive, multipart "biography" of the watch)
- "Speedy" obsessives site (good for researching vintage models or the refreshingly sluggish evolution of the design as a whole)
- Timezone Forums
Notes
1. A third function, the tachymeter requires an outside agent.
2. Jack Foster, The Right Stuff: Inside the Omega Speedmaster Professional
3. Thanks to many members of the timezone.com Omega forum for details like this and many other corrections.]]>
Courtesy Hugh MacLeod.
Influenced largely by Hugh MacLeod, I've grown more expressive—and experimental—with Twitter. I'm more likely to preview new ideas, promote the work of others, or just get wonky. I've seen mutations happen with other friends too: some share tiny music and movie reviews, others become increasingly dada. It's all good—except of course when it isn't.
Now I have my own opinions about how compelling my friends messages are, but I have very little data about their opinions of mine. I'm sometimes fear that I'm going to turn off my good friends by getting too pushy, too esoteric, too frequent—too anything, really. Meanwhile, my friends have no polite recourse. They have a very stark choice: put up with tedious missives or dial down my twitters to the point that they stop following me.
I don't want anyone following me to have to live with this choice. That's why Twitter needs a lightweight, anonymous feedback system. Two simple responses—penalty and prop(er)—would allow people to feedback to their friends in a gentle and anonymous way twitter messages that are more attractive or less attractive.
This would be a great way for Twitter to complete the sentence.
Read also: Hugh on Twitter.
Postscript: You could certainly abstract this further to any kind of web publication that's focused on an intimate audience, including photos and video and the like.
Post-postscript: Watching the gooftastic audience in Ryan Adams live special on MHD, you really understand his apparent audience hostility.
]]>Perhaps chameleonic isn't a great word for the 2007 Patriots. Through the year, the team has stood at or near the top of just about every major statistical measure. Brady and Moss have had their own statistical achievements, the most indelible (most touchdown catches in a season and most passes for a touchdown in a season) occuring simultaneously, late in the season-ending "Super Bowl XLI½" against the Giants in December.
It was in that game that their chameleon qualities were most apparent. Through the season, they had been able to force opponents to unexpected the expected as they would continually engage in hurry-up empty-backfield drives in the dwindling minutes of decided games. They also had an ability to play conservatively on defense, allowing opponents to chase the prolific Pats offense with gambling speed-oriented schemes, chewing up yardage until stumbling into an interception or (quite often) being forced to settled for a chip-shot field goal.
When circumstances have dictated it, the Patriots have showed a legit power-running offense. They showed incredible patience, frequently going to the run in the last quarter in a struggle against the Ravens. Despite having no healthy starter in the Tight End position and missing the left side of the offensive line, the Patriots were able to shift to a protect-and-pass approach when the run wasn't working.
The bottom line is that the Patriots have gathered talented players to execute just about anything in the playbook, and the coaching staff has leveraged their situational intelligence so the chameleonic transformations can come at any time. That's a lot to prepare to for. And that is the Giant's task. But as usual, we'll look at the keys to a Patriots victory.
12 possessions
The key to a Patriot victory is to increase the number of possessions. The Giants will try to score quickly by going to the play-action on short second-down situations. They'll try to manufacture those situations by sustaining stabbing first-down runs with Jacobs and Bradshaw. Before the meeting at the Meadowlands, Jacobs was dominating NFC opponents with 140 yard+ running performances. The Patriots limited him to 60. Bradshaw was out due to a calf injury that game.
If the Pats can stuff the run often enough, the Giants won't enjoy the unpredictability and inherent pass-protection that comes from the play-action. That will mean more incomplete passes and more long yardage situations that favor the Pats linebacking strengths. (Tedy still does not have an interception this year.) That will mean short possessions for the Giants and more opportunities for Brady to look for Moss and KO the Giants in short order.
17 attack
Manning still strikes me as a unreliable quarterback. Burress is questionable for the game—sure to play, but possibly slowed in his patterns or vulnerable to reinjury. However, Plaxico remains the primary x-factor for the Giants. If the Patriots fail to neutralize him and he's able to put his team into position to score more than 21 points it could be anyone's game with one possession to go. So Plaxico will need to be chipped and his injuries tested.
18 down
A lot has changed since the Colts scored their first touchdown in the second half of the AFC Championship game. They were down by 18 points at the time and ultimately crushed the Patriots in a slow-motion train wreck where the Colts were able to move against a defense too tired to go all 60 minutes. The Patriots looked chaotic, tired.
In years past, the Colts had been the favorites and the Patriots had been cast as wonderfully disruptive underdogs who won the mind game and the actual game even as statistical measures favored the loser. This year (oddly early in the year too, as the idea of an undefeated season was floated during the preseason) the Patriots have carried a mantle of cosmos, not chaos. They've been expected to instill an orderly twenty-point blowout week after week, regardless of opponent, injuries, weather, or location. They've carried that cosmic weight well.
All the more reason for the aspect of chaos to lord over this last game. Its gaze was certainly felt when the Patriots held their ground against in Dallas and unraveled the Colts in Indianapolis. It seemed ready on the sidelines during the late season "squeakers" in Baltimore and New York. For a time its pull seemed to anchor the Patriots defense in concrete, unable to make tackles or even stay square with the play.
Defense by its vary nature is not derived from cosmos, so perhaps that is why I think we'll know pretty quickly on Sunday if that mantle can be carried for 60 more minutes or if a grim chaos will lift it away. We'll see it in the eyes of the Jarvis Green, in the shoulders of Junior Seau, and the legs of Hobbes and Samuel. The later games of the season have been oddly comforting because the Patriots defense has felt like the defense of old, reveling in the chaos, bending but rarely breaking. As a team, they have not yet broken. How far can the defense can bend again?
(The Patriots are the home team.)
]]>Espionage
The Chargers beat the Colts and paid dearly for the victory. Moderate injuries (or reinjuries) to their Quarterback, feature Tight End, and feature Running Back punctuated a storyline that colored the win as nothing short of miraculous, given the performance of the Chargers' second-stringers. But I've never been surprised by elevated play when subs take snaps for Pro Bowl candidates. There's something about the chemistry that results of not being prepared and suddenly playing on adrenaline, mixing with an opponent that lacks preparation for a suddenly changed team that frequently results in wins or at the least, respectable losses.
So the question asked in the wake of that game was: could San Diego enjoy the same chemistry in New England? I don't believe so. When players are questionable leading up to a game, their replacements have time to over-think their new role and their opposition time to digest scouting data and prepare. Perhaps the only thing that San Diego has going for it is its apparently successful attempt to mask who will be ready to play. Gates appears likely to play, but not for the entire game. Rivers seems unlikely to play, but participated in a closed-stadium workout. Tomlinson recovered from his knee injury last week but the Patriots will certainly seek a second opinion. Even Shawne Merriman missed practices this week with flu-like symptoms.
Frozen Lines
So what do the Patriots do the beat the Chargers? Perhaps the most effective method of slowing the Patriots this year has been bringing a speedy and exotic mosiac of blitzes around Brady's offensive line. San Diego will doubtlessly bring them to get the turnovers they'll need to win the game.
The Patriots best response will be set up with single back formations, making use of their healthier Tight Ends to give Brady maximum flexibility at the snap. An ability to send TE out into the flats, or to keep them at home to assist in pass-protection should maintain his ability to let receivers get attractive matchups. Alternatively, the Patriots can continue to sharpen their run-blocking. If Merriman and Shaun Phillips do rush the outside, Belichick will be happy to take it and get four-to-six yards per carry with an apparently peaking Lawrence Maroney. A willingness to be that patient (and there have been games where the Pats haven't demonstrated it) will freeze San Diego's Linebacker corps often enough to keep a complete playbook.
Peace Under Center
On Sunday, Brady can make one but not two mistakes that lead to interceptions. The Patriots D will look worst if it faces a San Diego running attack—whoever carries the ball—that's running the clock down on a lead. The Charger's emotional defense feasts on flustered Quarterbacks that rush passes, get happy feet, or lose the football. The bad news is that Brady doesn't fit the profile: he throws the ball away, he calmly takes sacks, and, when running, he slides on time. When he does make tight throws they're nearly off the turf to Welker or nearly hitting the crossbar to Moss in the end zone.
I'm sure on one level the Patriots coaching corps would prefer to stare across the field at the Colts tomorrow. In a way, they'll be able to do it. Despite the media focus on the signal videotaping at the beginning of the year, I still consider the uber-motivator for this club to be the nightmare at Indianapolis last January. That opportunity was missed in such tragic fashion, the Patriots have dedicated themselves with unmatched obsession to wash that stain from their hands.
A game plan that includes the full roster of the Bolts, a solid running option with Maroney, and a calm and collected Brady will clean up soundly.
]]>House Odds
To win, the Jaguars must build the occasional gamble into their gameplan. If both teams play conservatively, the Jaguars must be certain they would lose. Their most obvious weakness is in their defensive line, where they have two starters out and one more weakened but ready to play. Given these limitations, they will likely have to bring help in rushing Brady. If they bring in linebackers, Brady's proven his ability to read around it and find the likes of Welker and Faulk in the middle of the field. If they bring a rush from the defensive backfield, they risk losing big plays—something they're likely counting on. Bottom line however they gamble—and they must—they're likely to feel like they're playing against the house.
15 and 60
The Patriots have enjoyed entering halftime with substantial leads all season. Last season too. Most painfully perhaps against the Colts in January. That loss has inspired Belichick and the team to adopt a "sixty minute" philosophy that ensures that they keep the accelerator down throughout the game and make sure no one starts playing with an empty tank.
The Jaguars can run with three players: their talented RBs or Gerrard himself, who is a proven scrambler, usually preferring to tuck the ball and pick up 10 yards than throw on the run. Their liability is most acute in situations where they're playing from behind. They'll have difficulty moving the ball and scoring quickly if most of their plays are runs. They'll simply run out of time.
The way I'm thinking of this is that each team has a different clock. The Jaguars need to control the clock and keep it short. They'd like the game to be fifteen minutes long. The Pats would like to extend the game to 60 minutes to maximize their possessions and scoring opportunities. If the Jags haven't demonstrated an ability to do this (eg. a lead and ball-control) by the end of the first quarter, it's looks very good for the Patriots.
So the Pats would like to have more possessions. What about stopping the Jaguars on defense?
Run-Nickel
Look for Belichick to bring speed to the run defense. One approach might be to start the game in a 4-3 (unlike the usual 3-4) since it might be better to set the agenda for the Jag's twin RBs by pushing around the offensive line rather than chasing them down with slower linebackers. They might bring in speedier tacklers from the backfield to hold the "edge" on outside running plays.
TCB
Good execution on the offense and a solid performance by the Pat's D—which has proven ability to reduce an opponent's best ability and "TCB." Let's see if Tedy can get his interception too!
]]>See what I mean?
]]>I usually don't write about the Patriots unless there's a playoff game coming up. However, the way things have gone this season, every game has become a playoff of one kind or another.
And now that the end of the regular season is in sight, each future matchup has its own peculiar importance. Currently those games carry the obvious weight of their undefeated status. At the same time, the overall image of the Patriots, given their recent inability to overwhelm opponents with ease, has created an impression of a stumbling giant, suddenly vulnerable to any opponent, regardless of ability.
As an image of an aging superpower—helmed by a madman bent on a principled if feral revenge—the idea is Nixonian, and alive with scheming color. The only way this idea may be truly on-target is that the team may rightly fear most opponents with the least to lose: a superpower can be planned around rationally; an apparently underpowered opponent may present startling asymmetries.
Like a superpower, talented opponents with a playoff future conduct themselves soberly, as the Steelers did this week. Faced with a three score deficit in the final moments, the Steelers ran the ball, evidently content to think they must only beat the Patriots once this year, and it was perhaps better to do so in January than December.
The teams that have no January to look forward to are those who threaten the Patriots more. Teams like the Eagles and the Ravens, and perhaps the Jets and the Dolphins, can burn all of their emotional energy in their 60 minutes appearance with the Patriots. The promise of a disruption to the Patriots record is enough to combust a rare chemistry within the game, where the favorite must be somewhat conservative and handle all manner of low-percentage strategies, gadget plays, on-side kicks, hell-bent pass rushers, and the like. This challenge is all the more difficult if your own offense gambles as confidently as the Patriots do.
This is surely the reason the undefeated season is a goal frequently lost in the last few games of the season. To my mind the real record the Patriots currently carry is that of narrative. The New England Patriots are going on their seventh straight season sustaining a fascinating and nuanced organizational Bildungsroman that is possibly without peer. It is one wherein the normal tropes of sports journalism don't seem to hold: where campaign, battle, conquest, and triumph seem necessary, yes, but wholly rational and philosophical. In that sense, Bill Belichick and the coaches and players of the New England Patriots stand not so close to Nixon, as to Marcus Aurelius.
]]>This type of response was formally identified by a philosophy professor of mine who noted that such statements were examples of "optative Cartesianism," meaning a statement that respects minimal knowledge in the Cartesian tradition in the optative or wishful grammatical mood.
The idea popped up in my mind the other day and I wanted to learn more about it. I was amazed that the phrase returned nothing on Google, not such much as a definition.
So there it is, optative Cartesianism.
]]>Golf has been an interesting rediscovery for me. After playing for some time (and substantial frustration) as a kid, I'm trying to play the real game again. As a kid there was the appealing technicality of the equipment and the thrall of landscape—in miniature, often, and including elemental simulacra etc. And the elements I once found boring, like the walking, waiting, and the assessment of distance and lie are now exciting to the degree that they capture (again, in miniature) the tropes of adult (particularly professional) life.
Anyway, I'm playing more. So I jotted down my thoughts on short Los Angeles courses you can play with few (or no) clubs and an inconsistent game.
]]>Best Selling Philosophy Videogames—December 2006
1. Extension
2. Zombies II: Experience the illusion of choice and intentionality
3. Qualia 2007
4. An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding: Of the Origin of Ideas
5. Leviathan: State of Nature 3
6. Logical Operators
7. Mind-Body Problems II: Party Edition
8. Compositional Nihilism IV
9. The Monadology
10. Other Minds: Arena
Keys to the game, mountain time edition.
Reruns (No. 18)
The Patriots get another chance to personally remind Colts' wide receiver Ricky Proehl of his prophetic birth announcement (unfortantely unspecific) for a dynasty moments before the kickoff of Superbowl XXXVI in 2001. (He once played for the Rams and then two years later for the Panthers.) To do it, they'll need to make this game feel like a rerun for the Colts, most particularly for #18, Payton Manning. The Pats know he's capable of greatness, but also capable of melting down in dramatic fashion and passing the game directly to the opposition.
To accomplish this, the Patriots will need to do the following:
Find money in their pocket
At his press conference on Wednesday, Brady addressed the media in a medium gray suit. Putting his hands in the pants he exclaimed, "I just found money in my pocket!" He pulled up a twenty dollar bill. It's a great example of the luck fabrication that the Patriots have executed under Belichick. They play the game with the right kind of emotion and would seem to invest the right way in practice and gameplan to enjoy dividends on the field.
Brady's apparently carefree perspective on the game is a huge advantage. Emotion will be a powerful force in this game, and it's one category where I think the Pats have an obvious advantage. The Patriots have been here before, won here before, moved on to the Superbowl before. The emotion fueling them has to be the nearness of a win that will escalate the team and their coach even higher in the rankings of all-time great teams. This is a fuel we've seen burn brightly before, most certainly during their statistically unprecedented defeat of the league's best offense and best defense in successive weeks in 2004.
For the Colts, the emotion is a less predictable thing. No doubt they'll be confident, but the Patriots can to take away the Colts' hard-earned homefield calm. If the Pats can radiate doubt early in the game, they'll benefit mightily with a quieter crowd and louder voices in #18 head.
This means scoring first. Then it means scoring off a Manning pass early. To do that, Asante Samuel or Ellis Hobbs will need to win the battle on the outside against Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and score off an errant pass. It will be interesting to see how much Belichick gambles to pick up passes by pressing these receivers.
Keep an open playbook
When Belichick has had the pleasure of a rematch following a loss in the same season, the Patriots are 7-1 (since 2001). In that same period, the Pats only lost the rematch to the same team in a season once: to the Denver Broncos last year.
So Belichick doesn't often lose twice. Why? He's a quantitative coach on Mondays and Tuesdays when players have days off and the staff is running film, reading scouting reports and evaluating matchups. When evaluating a playoff contender, he has sixteen more games to assess. It's a huge corpus of information for his staff to comb through for threads that can be woven into an unexpected and impactful gameplan. When Belichick has a loss against that team to work from, he seems to have even more raw data to crunch.
When the Pats faced Indianapolis earlier in the year, the playbook was curiously narrow; screen passes and slant routes were almost never used. Belichick needs to use these—perhaps October can show him how best to do so.
Let Brady be himself
When Brady is uncharacteristic ally inefficient in one game, he's predictably better in the next. In all the games Brady has played in the pros, he's bounced back from games where he's thrown two or more interceptions.
In his career, his quarterback rating increased an average of 63% (and increased all but three times). This is statistically significant. For comparison purposes, when Payton Manning has performed similarly (almost the same number of instances as Brady) his quarterback rating decreases by 6%.
Brady has history behind him in rising to the occasion as an underdog in a hostile stadium. If Brady is consistent—he doesn't have to be stellar—the Pats have a good shot.
Score on Defense
The way the Patriots exited the playoffs last year illustrates the importance of interceptions--especially when the games are between teams executing at a high level.
Interceptions by Brady are a strong bellweather:
Record by Brady interceptions, since 2001. 48-8 no picks. 25-6 one pick. 8-5 two picks. 1-2 three picks. 0-5 four picks.
So Brady can't afford more than one pick on Sunday. He lofted four against Indy in their last meeting. Two were freak tips that had more to do with Brady's inexperienced receiving core than Tom's arm. After the last pick, Payton connected with Harrison in a pained, low-percentage feat of acrobatics to score the game winning touchdown.
As they did in October, the Pats will likely blitz the middle to neutralize power runs and pressure Manning. This should produce bad throws. That occurred regularly in their last meeting. But Manning bad passes were still soaked up by the acrobatics of Harrison, Wayne, and Proehl. Further, Manning was uncharacteristically mobile, escaping several near-sacks and connecting with check-down receivers late in plays.
I didn't see that loss as a huge endorsement of Indianapolis. It was a close game until the second half of the fourth quarter and the game's fulcrum was Marvin Harrison's amazing play. Getting one or two picks on Manning will cover the seven point difference in October.
]]>These are my keys to the game, just under the wire.
MVP NPV
How important is Tomlinson (#21) to San Diego's attack? Critical. How dangerous is he to the Patriots?
Five of the last seven MVPs have suffered a defeat at the hands of the Patriots in the playoffs. (The sixth, Rich Gannon, was deafeated one year before he was MVP in 2002 and the seventh. Shaun Alexander, didn't have to face the Pats in last year's super bowl.)
The Patriots have shown an ability to take away one a key player from many opponents. There's little doubt the Patriots will need to do that again on Sunday. Beyond that, they'll need offensive flexibility to keep pace with a Charger team that's accostomed to buliding leads and draining clocks in the fourth quarter.
Keys on Defense
Lineman must put mental pressure on Philip Rivers (#17) and Tomlinson through schemes.
Richard Seymour (#93) on the right, Ty Warren (#94) on the left, and big Vince Wilfork (#75) will be the foundation of what's likely to be a 3-4 defense. Since the Patriots 2001 season, the 3-4 has become more popular, despite the higher demands (in talent, smarts and salary) a 3-4 requires. Fully half of the remaining playoff teams (as of Saturday) employ the 3-4.
One advantage of the 3-4 is more flexibility in run-blocking and the Pats will need to do that effectively to stop Tomlinson without opening up the secondary to a pass attack. Tomlinson is capable of fitting into small gaps or drifting outside and speeding up. The Patriots linemen and smart and capable of handling the complex blocking the Chargers will throw at them.
21-54=0
If Tomlinson does prefer to slip outside and speed up, the Patriots linebacks must answer. It won't be easy because the Pats LBs are a poor matchup in speed.
Tedy Bruschi (#54) has been quiet this season. Since making his comeback last season, his numbers have been off from his 2003-2004 Super Bowl tear. In those seasons, he had two touchdowns off interceptions each. Tomlinson benefits from poor gap assignments in defensive lines and burns outside linebackers by faking outside and cutting inside.
Bruschi must rise to the occasion and force a turnover (or two) either by putting the hurt on Tomlinson's small hands or by getting the interceptions that have lofted the Pats through three of the past four post-seasons.
Keys on Offense.
# 28
The Patriots probably can't afford any turnovers. Cory Dillon (#28) occasionally makes them. He's a big x-factor in this game. The team which suffers an exausted defense first is likely to win. If used strategically, Dillion should have the stamina the help the Pats win that battle.
#12
Brady needs to be his usual self and bring a high awareness level with him to behind center. Being able to read the Chargers Pat-like linebacker blitz schemes and improvse before the snap will be important.
Bottom Line
1. Bruschi needs to force a turnover, one way or another. 2. The Pats can accept a certain amount of Tomlinson running, but they need to prevent him from speeding up on the outside. 3. The Patriots need to score first and quiet the crowd. Staying a score ahead will narrow the Chargers playbook.
The closer the game, the better for the Pats. If things are still up in the air in the fourth, a lack of winning playoff experience should smother Rivers, Marty Schottenheimer, and the Bolts' fans.
]]>These are my keys to the game, back after an unfortunate day off.
This time, it's personnel.
The Jets and the Pats have shared blood connections ever since Parcells split for New York. Belichick, Mangini, and "Player Personnel" Scott Pioli have all worked together, and for both teams. Mangini was Linebacker Coach and Defensive Coorindator under Belichick in New England through the Super Bowl years. Belichick brought Mangini into the NFL when he hired him as an entry-level coaches assistant with the Browns in 1995. They both graduated from Wesleyan and were members of the same fraternity.
A lot has been made of their gameplanning, scouting capability, and rivalry. They've played twice this year and the postseason offers a rubber match. I think personnel, not personality will determine the outcome.
Conditions matter.
Their first meeting in New York was on artificial turf, game two was in driving rain on the muddy Foxboro natural grass. The Jets didn't blitz at all in game one, preferring to mute the Pats' running game. It didn't work. Dillion and rookie Lawrence Maroney combined for 140 yards and two TDs. In the second game, the Jet pressured Brady and blitzed often. But the conditions didn't stop the Jets from driving with expected success and didn't stop the Pats run attack.
What was the difference? The Pats' offensive line was weak with inexperience. The Jets exploited this to great effect, sacking Brady a season-high four times and forcing an interception. A secondary effect was even more problematic. The rush forced Brady to throw quickly to outlet receivers, unable to wait for deep patterns to develop. Combined with the conditions, this crippled the Pats' ability to come back from a 10 point Jets lead in the fourth quarter.
Two weeks later, the Patriots installed an artificial turf at Gilette.
When they win big, the Patriots have successfully followed deep passing gains with red zone runs to score touchdowns. When they lose frustratingly close games, like the second meeting with the Jets, it's often because they're settling for field goals and not closing with the run. On the new turf and under what is forecasted to be clear and chilly conditions, the Patriots should be able to stretch the field with speed. Maroney will make a contribution, but Dillion (#28) should will his way to a back-breaking second half run opportunity.
Defensive switch.
In the first game, the Pats played in a 4-3, putting pressure on Pennington with the front four alone. In the second game, the 3-4 was less effective. With Ty Warren out, Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green switched sides at linebacker and struggled against the Jets playbook in the slow field.
The Pats' secondary is once again missing Rodney Harrison, but the Jets will bleed the Pats slowly with short passes and in-cuts, not with safety bait.
Watch for the return of the 4-3 on many early downs to congest the Jets run and keep Pennington pinned behind his offensive line and between the tackles. Ty Warren (#94) is back and should make the difference here.
Cotchery vs. Caldwell.
Cotchery made game one competitive and extended clock-draining drives in game two. In two games against the Pats, he snared 12 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns. He was particularly good at getting open in the many times Pennington scrambled to the outside and improvised. He made the game-closing acrobatic catch to give the Jets a 17-6 late in the fourth.
The Pats will find success reducing Cotchery not through coverage but through pressure. Ideally, the front four of the 4-3 will get penetration and sack Pennington without flushing him outside the tackles.
Meanwhile, Reche Caldwell (#87) the rookie analog to Maroney in the air, should make the difference here. If he can get his name called and rack up 60 yards or more, the Patriots will win handily.
]]>A co-production of Turner Classic Movies and Bogdanovich. About twenty minutes longer due to new interviews with Walter Hill, Steve Speilberg and Harry Carey Jr.
Running time two hours. File size is around 700 megs.
For these reasons, I've made it a download: Directed by John Ford. (Quicktime H.264)
Right click and select "save as".
Enjoy.]]>
Playing one of the weakest schedules in the league, the Jaguars have only beaten two teams that finished 2005 with winning records, Seattle at home and at Pittsburgh in overtime. Both of those victories were in September. Their gaudy record (12-4) is mostly the result of beating up on teams in the NFL basement.
But they tend to play up to the skill of their opposition, hanging with the Colts and losing by only a score in each of their games. Jacksonville doesn't play well from behind, particularly with Leftwich as QB. The difficult games that they've won have usually allowed them to protect two and three score leads in the second quarter.
Their trio of running backs usually set up a balanced attack and often catch the ball in the flats for outside runs. They have an appetite for uppercuts, often going deep for TD attempts early in the game to play the clock.
Leftwich's Return
The Jags' starting QB, Byron Leftwich, was injured in November. Since then, his backup, David Garrard has won 5 for 6, running downhill over folding teams late in the season. Leftwich is all arm. He sticks to the pocket and likes to go deep. He tends to throw into coverage, something Denver exploited for two interceptions. Garrard is a less experienced veteran, but his scrappy, mobile play has lead his struggling offense to three come-from-behind wins.
Despite every indication that Leftwich will start for the first time in six weeks, the situation has forced the Pats to prepare game plans for each QB. If Leftwich struggles against the Pats' D, expect to see #9 replace #7 behind center.
#27 vs #82
Ellis Hobbs III, the rookie corner back out of Iowa State, has been getting better and better since subbing in the secondary since the injury to Rodney Harrison in the Pittsburgh game. He and Asante Samuel have been leveraging the radically improved play at the line of scrimmage by the Pats linebacker corps. By stopping the run on first and second down situations, opponents in the second half of the season have been throwing into traps in the secondary. He may often line up against the Jag's best receiver, veteran Jimmy Smith.
Clock Management
There's a reason the Patriots have won three Super Bowls by just three points each. Once a game is underway, Belichick doesn't focus on the scoreboard, but looks to the game clock. When playing with a lead, the best defense is time. In the second half, the offense isn't oriented toward making scores as much as it is toward wearing the opponent--and clock--down in a methodical manner.
Belichick breaks the remaining game time into scoring opportunities. A 30 yard drive that ends in a punt and uses short passing and running can be more important for victory than a quickly-strike field goal or touchdown drive.
History
In 1997, the Patriots beat the Jags on the way to their Super Bowl loss to Green Bay. Tedy Bruschi, Willie McGinest and Adam Vinatieri were in that game.
The Jaguars handed the Patriots their last playoff loss, winning 25-10 in January 1999.
Since then, the Patriots have won their last nine playoff games. A victory by the Pats tonight will set the record for straight playoff wins at 10.
Keys
The Patriots need pick up at least 70 yards on the ground against the Jaguar's potent run defense.
Ellis Hobbs "the third" needs to square off well against the Jags and pull down one or more interceptions.
Look for conservative drives on offense in the second quarter that give the Pats' defense an important advantage as the Jags will need to narrow their playcalling and pass into coverage. The result: Adam Vinatieri will need to kick 3+ field goals.
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